A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
